Asymmetric Risk & Opportunity

How to spot your the big plays, before they come about...

Part of the problem that I observe with self-development creators or online entrepreneurs is this 'one-size-fits-all' approach to their advice.

A.K.A 'This worked for me, therefore it will work for you as well'.

I think a lot of the overwhelm we feel from social media is feeling like all of these statements are true at the same time when really they all probably hold some validity but not across everyone.

Here is where the concept of a 'mental model' comes in.

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet's business partner, pioneered this idea and people like Chris Williamson, Alex Hormozi and Naval Ravikant.

A mental model is not straight advice telling you what you should do and what not to do, but rather providing you with an idea and a parameter for you to make your own decisions.

Our own individual consciousness is almost like an OS (operating system) like we have on our phones or computers.

Mental models are like apps that you use for certain purposes like we use maps for directions and cameras for photos.

I want to start writing more about mental models because straight advice is not true across large audiences, whereas mental models are far more applicable.

Plus, who am I to tell anyone what you should or shouldn't be doing with your life?

With that said, here's the first one in the kind of 'mini-series' I'm going to do over the next coming weeks.

I hope you enjoy :)

Asymmetric Risk & Opportunity

Some decisions have a lot more downside than upside.

For example, if you are texting someone while driving.

You might get to respond to the group chat while it's popping off, but the risk is so unbelievably asymmetrical.

You could also end up paralysed for the rest of your life, you could crash and take someone's life or at best, end up with a hefty bill to get your car fixed.

All because of a '2 years ago, today' photo that's been sent into the snapchat group chat.

Very little upside but potentially eternal downside.

On the flip side, some decisions have a lot more upside than downside.

For example, sending someone a message.

Sending a friend a message on their birthday takes 10 seconds of your time but you guys might not have spoken for a while and it could make a world of difference to their day.

Or sending outreach messages to prospective business partners or people you follow online.

You might end up making hundreds of thousands of pounds with that person over the course of a lifetime.

You might make an incredible friend who you really enjoy spending time with.

All because of a 30-second message.

Lots of upside, with very little potential downside.

So how can you use this as a decision-making framework?

If you are making a decision and you are stuck, just think about how much time and energy this is going to take, and what are the potential upsides and downsides of either choice.

If it doesn't appear obvious, then you are down to your instincts to make the decision.

However, after evaluating those things you will usually come to a conclusion.

Happy Tuesday my people, have a great week and smash anything you are on with this week <3

Thanks for reading guys,

Charlie @ Progressus Network x